Complexity, Vekoma, and Thousand Words lead, but the first-crop race has just begun

Plenty of big names will be ready to fire between now and year’s end

By Sid Fernando

Start your engines, as they say. The first six months of the year have passed, and now the race for the first-crop sire championship officially begins, with the most lucrative and prestigious races for 2-year-olds on the horizon. This means that early season 4 1/2- and 5 1/2-furlong maiden sprints will give way to longer races, and quality will be measured by listed and graded stakes along the way to the year-ending Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup events with big purses that heavily influence which young sires will sit atop the standings at the close of 2024.

At the moment, three N. American stallions have leaped to the top with more than five winners each—an exclusive club so far.

Airdrie’s Complexity, a Grade 1 winner by Maclean’s Music, currently leads with progeny earnings of $447,786 and nine individual winners. Next on the list are the Spendthrift duo of Vekoma, a Grade 1 winner by Candy Ride, and Thousand Words, a Grade 2 winner by Pioneerof the Nile.

Current N. American freshman sire leader Complexity in training at Palm Meadows as a 4-year old.

Complexity at Airdrie Stud.

Vekoma is the sire of 10 winners and $445,248, and Thousand Words, a few lengths back in third place but gaining momentum, is represented by six winners and earnings of $381,766. On Sunday at Churchill Downs, the Thousand Words filly Vodka With a Twist impressively won the Debutante S. to make her sire only the second N. American-based freshman sire with a black-type winner.

Vekoma at Spendthrift Farm.

The drama here will be to see if these early leaders can hold off other highly regarded sires that have yet to percolate. For instance, Game Winner, Lane’s End’s undefeated champion 2-year-old colt and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner, so far has only one winner, but he’s been touted by two of the best judges in the game, Donato Lanni and David Ingordo.

Likewise, Coolmore—the preeminent stallion maker in the game—has 3-year-old champion Maximum Security, a son of the Street Cry horse New Year’s Day, with two winners, one of them highly impressive on European turf at Saint-Cloud. No Coolmore horse is ever to be taken lightly, even in this case with the taint on Maximum Security after his first trainer, Jason Servis, was sent behind bars after admitting guilt to using illegal substances on his runners.

Then there’s Crestwood’s Uncle Mo horse Caracaro with two winners, and he’s the only other freshman represented by a black-type winner to date. Caracaro wasn’t a stakes winner winner himself—he won only one race from four starts, but he did place second in the G1 Runhappy Travers S. More importantly, though, he’s a son of a stallion who has made an impressive start as a sire of sires, most notably with Darley’s Derby winner, Nyquist, whose seasons were trading for six figures after an $85,000 fee had originally been set.

The colt that defeated Caracaro in the Travers was Coolmore’s Constitution son Tiz the Law, who also won the Belmont S. He’s a sire whose progeny are expected to improve with age and distance, and there are many judges who think he will be the one to beat this year.

Spendthrift’s Into Mischief son Authentic beat Tiz the Law in the Derby and also won the Breeders’ Cup Classic, making him the best 10-furlong dirt runner of this year’s freshman sires. He was a Horse of the Year and also the most expensive sire of the group, and, needless to say, he got the best mares of any of his contemporaries in his first year at stud. That’s a potent combination, and his progeny should be firing later in the year. At the moment, he has one winner.

There are others that will make runs at the leaders as well, including Claiborne’s War Front Preakness winner War of Will, with one winner; Taylor Made’s Instilled Regard, an Arch Grade 1 winner on turf at 1 1/4 miles who already (and surprisingly) has three winners from only four starters; WinStar’s Curlin Grade 1 winner Global Campaign, with three winners; the Gainesway duo of Grade 1 winners Spun to Run, with two winners, and McKinzie, with one; Lane’s End’s flashy and handsome Grade 1 winner Honor A. P., with three winners; and Three Chimneys’ Volatile, a fast Grade 1 winner by Violence, with one winner so far.

The horses listed here are the more higher-profile members of the class, and there are others as well.

Two that should be noted for siring impressive debut winners last month are Ocala Stud’s Hat Trick Grade 1 winner Win Win Win and Buck Pond’s Shanghai Bobby Grade 2 winner Shancelot. The latter is the sire of the precocious and highly regarded Midland Money, a $650,000 2-year-old who won a maiden special at Santa Anita by six lengths; and Win Win Win is the sire of the filly Nooni, a $1.8 million 2-year-old who won a maiden special at the same track by 9 1/2 lengths. Both are trained by Bob Baffert, an exceptional judge of juveniles, and it remains to be seen whether these individuals are outliers for their sires—certainly their auction prices suggest this—or not.

At the moment, the pole sitters—Complexity, Vekoma, and Thousand Words—have the momentum, but there are six months yet to go and a lot can and will happen between now and then.

Sit back and enjoy the race.